Changes in world trade, opportunities and challenges under the epidemic

China.org.cn/China Development Portal news The global pandemic of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has posed many challenges to economic globalization。3月14日，China (Hainan) Institute for Reform and Development (hereinafter referred to as the "Institute") held an expert network symposium on "Economic Globalization under the Impact of the epidemic",Experts at the meeting discussed topics such as "the impact of the pandemic on the global economy", "Challenges and responses to economic globalization under the impact of the pandemic", and "China's choice in the context of the impact of the pandemic on economic globalization"。

The pandemic has hit global supply, industrial and value chains hard

Chi Fulin, president of the China Institute for Reform and Reform, pointed out that the longer the epidemic lasts, the greater the impact and impact on the global supply chain, which may lead to the interruption of supply chains in some industries。The impact of the epidemic on the tourism, catering and transportation industries is quite serious;Due to the impact of the epidemic, the production of key components and other intermediate products has been halted, which has had a severe impact on the overall demand and supply chain of the automobile manufacturing, electrical and electronic, pharmaceutical and other industries。

Zhang Yunling, member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences，Impact of the epidemic，The first was the shutdown of China, the hub of global supply chains，Supply chain disruption，It leads to the crisis of production and operation and the crisis of consumption.The second wave saw outbreaks in more countries，The short-term impact has led to lower economic growth, increased market panic, and increased financial risks。The medium and long term effects deserve further observation and study。

Li Gang, director of the Academic Committee and researcher of the Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out that since 2008, the global value chain has been shortening, and the regional value chain has shown a trend of strengthening, and the epidemic has further increased this trend。

Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, believes that the global spread of the epidemic has directly impacted the three global production networks in East Asia, Europe and North America, and its negative impact cannot be underestimated。

Cao Yuanzheng, chairman of Bank of China International Research Co., LTD., believes that the impact of the epidemic on the industry is likely to be "wavy", one wave after another。The first wave of the epidemic hit the high-tech industries of Japan and South Korea;The second is the energy sector in Iran and the Middle East.The third wave is likely to hit services in Europe and the US。A financial crisis in the United States would have catastrophic consequences for the global financial system。

The pandemic could lead to a global recession and increase the possibility of a global economic crisis

Jia Qingguo, professor and former dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University, pointed out that the epidemic not only caused a large number of economic activities to stop, but also its uncertainty intensified the panic。For some time to come, the economy of most countries will continue to decline, and the possibility of the world economy entering recession is very high。

Zhang Ming, director of the International Investment Research Office and researcher of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the global economic growth rate has dropped from 3 years ago.6% down from 2% last year.9%;Chances are it will fall below 2 this year.5%, which is the watershed for a global recession。The global economic and financial situation in the coming period is generally not optimistic。The stock market correction in the developed world is not over;In the financial market, two potential risk points of southern European national debt and emerging economies may break out in the future;After the epidemic, international economic and trade conflicts may escalate again...The macro policy challenges of responding to financial market turmoil under the impact of the epidemic are much greater than in 2008。

China International Economic Exchange Center chief economist Chen Wenling believes，In the epidemic, the US economy showed the characteristics of "four drops and four rises" : the economic growth fell, the stock market and bonds fell sharply, the oil, gold, silver and bitcoin prices fell simultaneously, and the US credit plummeted;There is a sharp rise in pandemic risk, a sharp rise in debt risk, a sharp rise in supply chain risk and a sharp rise in global decoupling risk。

Wang Jian, a researcher at the Chinese Macroeconomic Society, pointed out that the epidemic has not happened in a century, and from the economic perspective, it may lead to a new form of world crisis characterized by a short-form crisis。That is, the economic shutdown caused the industrial chain to break, and production could not continue, resulting in a serious supply shortage。In addition, the stagnation of economic activities leads to the decline of income, which makes the strong demand inhibition and the strong supply inhibition coexist。

Cao Yuanzheng believes that in addition to the US stock market, the fixed income market, the bulk raw material market, the precious metal market, and the foreign exchange market are all falling in the same direction, and the global financial system is likely to collapse。Developing countries and countries along the Belt and Road should pay attention to guard against such risks。

Chi Fulin believes that if the epidemic continues for a while, if the world's major powers are ineffective in response, if the global coordination is slow, the short-term world economic recession may evolve into a global economic crisis。

The pandemic has had a huge impact on economic globalization

Zhang Yunling pointed out that many countries' policies will shift to emphasizing inward, inward, independent and guaranteed development.Enterprise globalization strategy began to adjust;The epidemic has accelerated the structural adjustment of globalization, and the breadth and depth of the adjustment are very large。

Wang Huiyao, chairman of the CCG, believes that the epidemic will have a huge impact on the world's understanding of globalization and the reshuffle of the international order。

Cao Yuanzheng believes that the core of the conflict between the epidemic and economic globalization is: economic globalization needs connectivity, but in response to the epidemic, it needs isolation, which causes great difficulties for countries to make decisions。

Zhang Yansheng believes that the epidemic has intensified the impact of deglobalization, international division of labor, and interpersonal exchanges, which may bring about the process of anti-globalization, localization, regionalization and decentralization of the global industrial chain, value chain, and supply chain。

Li Gang pointed out that the global pandemic not only has a great impact on the integration of trade, production, investment and services, but also may impact the integration of rules behind these integration。

Chi Fulin believes that the global spread of the epidemic will lead to major international cooperation projects in contract performance, implementation, financing, employees return to work and other aspects of many challenges, some major international projects will be delayed or even stalled and canceled。

We will strengthen global macroeconomic policy coordination and effectively respond to the impact of the epidemic on the economy。

Cao Yuanzheng pointed out that the global joint fight against the epidemic and cut off the impact of the epidemic on the economy is the best macroeconomic policy。Should the theme of global epidemic response be put on the urgent agenda of the UN Security Council and G20 summit, and a mechanism be formed to discuss how to deal with the epidemic。It is necessary to grasp the rotating impact of the epidemic on the industry, and take precise measures rather than generalizing。

Li Gang suggested that urgent consultations at the World Trade Organization level, the World Customs Organization and the World Tourism Organization should also take relevant measures to reduce the impact of the epidemic on the global economy。

In the context of the global pandemic, China has chosen to stabilize itself as the primary prerequisite for assuming the responsibilities of a major country。

Wang Jian believes that the first priority is to ensure people's livelihood and agriculture。Chen Wenling believes that it is necessary to grasp the five major economic growth points in China。The first is new consumption, the second is new infrastructure, the third is new services, the fourth is new manufacturing, and the fifth is new value chain。Jia Qingguo believes that the recovery of the economy mainly depends on their own, we should further increase the efforts to expand domestic demand, take necessary measures to stimulate the economy;Relief and subsidies should be given to families suffering hardship due to the interruption of income during the epidemic。Wu Shicun suggested that social life should be normalized as soon as possible, that is, "normalize life and normalize the fight against the epidemic."。

We call on the international community to fight the epidemic with proactive cooperation。

Jia Qingguo pointed out that China should actively carry out international cooperation。Sharing experience with other countries;To the best of our ability, we will provide material support to other countries in their fight against the epidemic。Cao Yuanzheng believes that the WHO can sum up the experience of fighting the epidemic to the world, especially China's experience。

We will continue to open wider to the outside world and push forward economic globalization。

Zhang Yunling pointed out that the adjustment of globalization structure has become an inevitable trend。China should support and promote these reforms and adjustments, combine international economic restructuring with domestic economic restructuring, and accelerate the pace of domestic economic adjustment。

Zhang Yansheng believes that it is necessary to deepen the all-round, high-level and diversified cooperation between China, Japan and South Korea;At the same time, we will accelerate the strategic alignment of China-Eu BIT, FTA, Belt and Road Initiative and Eurasian connectivity。We should strengthen cooperation with the United States and jointly fight the epidemic, not trade wars。

Jia suggested taking the opportunity of the joint fight against the epidemic to speed up the construction of the China-Japan-ROK free trade area。At the same time, speed up the signing of RCEP。Cao Yuanzheng pointed out that it is necessary to form a new mechanism and arrangement centered on the fight against the epidemic, and effectively respond to the global economic recession with practical actions of regional integration。